ASEAN Energy Ministers Convene in Manila to Tackle Supply Crisis Triggered by Iran Conflict

Southeast Asia's energy ministers are gathering in Manila this week for a two-day meeting set against the backdrop of severe supply disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is convening on Wednesday and Thursday to address mounting concerns over energy security as the region grapples with the fallout from conflict in the Middle East that has upended global supply chains.

The timing of the meeting underscores the urgency facing the 11-member bloc. Before the Iran war began in late February, ASEAN nations sourced approximately half of their oil requirements from Middle Eastern suppliers. The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global petroleum shipments, has left the region dangerously exposed to supply constraints that have rippled through economies and households alike.

The discussions in Manila are expected to cover a range of initiatives aimed at deepening energy cooperation and accelerating the transition to cleaner sources. Among the key proposals on the table is a framework for fuel-sharing among member states and efforts to advance the long-delayed integration of the region's power grids. These measures reflect a growing recognition that collective action is necessary to buffer against future shocks.

The severity of the crisis was laid bare within weeks of the war's outbreak when the Philippines, which currently chairs ASEAN, declared a national energy emergency. Officials in Manila warned that fuel supplies could be exhausted within 45 days, prompting urgent contingency planning. Several other ASEAN economies, including Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia, responded by rolling out energy-conservation measures that ranged from expanded work-from-home arrangements to fuel rationing.

Philippine Energy Secretary Sharon S Garin framed the country's ASEAN chairmanship as a pivotal opportunity to transform regional dialogue into concrete action. In a statement issued on Sunday ahead of the meetings, she noted that developments in global energy markets can rapidly affect the cost and availability of fuel, disrupt industries and place financial pressure on households. Garin emphasised that the chairmanship allows the Philippines to help translate regional cooperation into practical arrangements that bolster the bloc's collective capacity to prepare for and respond to disruptions.

The structural challenges facing Southeast Asia extend beyond the immediate crisis. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the region's per capita energy demand has climbed by nearly 30 percent over the past decade, while oil production has declined by 40 percent from its peak in the 1990s. This widening gap between consumption and domestic output has made ASEAN increasingly reliant on imports, leaving it vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Electricity demand across the region, home to more than 700 million people, is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent between 2026 and 2030, according to IEA forecasts. Meeting that surging demand will require significant investment in infrastructure, diversification of supply sources and improved regional coordination, analysts say. ASEAN, one of the world's fastest-growing economic blocs with a combined GDP exceeding 4.2 trillion dollars, has long recognised the need to reduce its dependence on imported oil and natural gas.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on Monday that Southeast Asia will confront considerable difficulties in satisfying its expanding energy needs amid what he described as an uncertain global energy landscape. Birol stressed that energy security considerations must be embedded into decisions across the entire system, from oil stocks and gas infrastructure to electricity grids and more efficient energy use. He added that closer collaboration among ASEAN countries would enable them to make better use of their collective resources and respond more effectively when disruptions occur.

Despite decades of ambition, ASEAN has struggled to deliver on its vision of deeper energy integration. Only nine of the 18 projects designated as priorities under the ASEAN Power Grid initiative have been completed since the plan was first proposed in the late 1990s. Unlike the European Union, ASEAN operates without a central supranational authority and cannot pass or enforce binding laws, a structural limitation that critics argue hampers the bloc's effectiveness in executing complex regional projects.

Dinita Setyawati, head of Southeast Asia research at the energy think tank Ember, told Al Jazeera that ministers will bring divergent priorities to the negotiating table. For the Philippines, she said, the focus is likely to be on securing funding and governance mechanisms for undersea cable connections that would allow it to participate in the ASEAN Power Grid. Singapore, meanwhile, will probably seek firmer commitments from neighbouring countries to export clean electricity, including through Singapore-Indonesia interconnections. Setyawati also noted that some member states are interested in developing a regional carbon market to expand financing for clean energy projects.

Laurence Delina, an associate professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology who specialises in Southeast Asian energy policy, said the bloc's rhetoric has consistently outpaced its achievements, with cooperation largely confined to bilateral energy-sharing agreements. He pointed out that ASEAN lacks the enforcement power enjoyed by the EU. Delina described the integration of the region's energy grid as a challenge that is as much political as it is technical, expressing doubt about whether it could be realised within his lifetime. He observed that although Southeast Asia is a region, the contexts of its constituent countries differ substantially, meaning it does not function as a true regional market.

Setyawati, however, struck a more optimistic note. She expressed hope that ASEAN ministers will commit additional funding to renewable energy and electrification as a means of reducing the region's reliance on imported fuels. She highlighted that electrification currently accounts for only around 25 percent of Southeast Asia's total final energy consumption, suggesting considerable room for expansion. As the meetings unfold, the challenge for ministers will be to bridge national interests and translate shared concerns into coordinated action that can withstand the pressures of an increasingly volatile global energy environment.