Can Yemen's government win over the tribes to help defeat the Houthis?

The internationally recognised Yemeni government has launched a sweeping military campaign against the Houthi movement, but its ultimate success may depend less on airstrikes than on a harder question: whether powerful tribes inside Houthi-controlled territory will finally choose a side. Officials and analysts say the tribes hold a potentially decisive share of the manpower and local influence needed to push deep into rebel-held areas, yet most appear determined to hold back until they see proof that the government's new offensive can deliver lasting gains rather than a brief flare of momentum.

The campaign, branded the Dawn of Yemen operation, was announced earlier this month by the Saudi-backed government and represents its most ambitious attempt in years to reclaim territory lost since the Houthis swept into the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. Government forces have opened fronts along the Red Sea coast and in the northern provinces of Marib and al-Jawf. Officials have gone further, pledging nothing less than the recapture of Sanaa itself and declaring an all-out war against the rebels.

The offensive is, in large part, a response to a Houthi surge in September. During that month, the armed group, also known as Ansar Allah, or Supporters of God, swept across much of the country's Red Sea coastline, seizing vital trade corridors. Among the prizes were the port city of Mocha and territory ringing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which a significant share of global shipping passes. The gains gave the Houthis both economic leverage and strategic depth.

Government airstrikes have exacted a toll on Houthi positions over the past several days, but military planners acknowledge that the hardest work lies ahead. Advancing on Sanaa, as well as the Houthi heartland provinces of Saada and Amran, means assaulting a movement that has been dug in for more than a decade of war. The terrain is difficult, the supply lines are long, and the defenders have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to absorb punishment and hold ground.

It is against that backdrop that the tribes have emerged as the campaign's wild card. For years, many clans that are hostile to, or deeply wary of, the Iran-backed Houthis have quietly stopped short of confronting the movement openly. Two things have kept them in line: the Houthis' formidable military reputation and painful memories of earlier uprisings that ended in defeat. Now, analysts say, those same tribes are watching the newly activated frontlines closely, waiting to judge whether the modest advances achieved so far can harden into sustained territorial control.

The government's decision to frame the fight as a total war may help shift that calculation. Experts argue that by openly committing to the recapture of Sanaa, the authorities could gradually erode the deep distrust many tribes harbour toward the state. If tribes come to believe the government is committed for the long haul rather than for a single campaign, they may be more willing to commit fighters at the moment when their involvement would matter most.

Early signs of momentum have already appeared. On Monday, a large tribal gathering convened in Marib governorate, the government's northern stronghold, drawing sheikhs and local anti-Houthi fighters from the Jadan of Marib, the Nihm of Sanaa, and other allied clans. The rally declared a general mobilisation in support of the armed forces, framing the struggle as a mission to "restore the state and topple the Houthi coup."

Adel Dashela, a researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, cautioned that rhetoric alone will not win the war. "If this tribal support translates into actual mobilisation and sustained participation in the battle, tribes will help government troops advance toward Houthi-controlled areas and the Houthi heartland, including Sanaa," he said. In his view, tribal fighters remain indispensable to any future campaign, but only if they are absorbed into formalised state and coalition command structures rather than operating as an unruly independent vanguard.

History offers a sobering reminder of what happens when tribes act alone. Over the past decade, clans have mobilised against the Houthis on numerous occasions at the local level, yet deep internal divisions and the absence of sustained external backing have repeatedly prevented the emergence of a unified tribal front. In January 2019, weeks of fighting erupted between the Houthis and the Hajoor tribe in the Hajjah governorate of northwestern Yemen. Although Saudi Arabia airdropped food, medical supplies and weapons to the besieged fighters, the Hajoor were eventually overrun and the tribe's areas captured by March of that year.

Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, said the tribes have internalised that lesson. They are reluctant to risk confrontation without guarantees, preferring to "wait for the right time." In his assessment, "the tribes seek a powerful state, and once they find the state reliable, they can side with it." Repeating the mistake of revolting without adequate government support, he warned, would be catastrophic: "Those tribes revolted against the Houthis, and they were crushed amid the absence of the government's effective role."

Mohammed also suggested the loyalties inside Houthi territory are more fluid than they appear. Even in areas where the movement enjoys genuine local backing, he argued, some clans could gradually drift toward the government if they concluded it served their interests. "Not all tribes fighting for the Houthis are staunch supporters," he said, noting that motivations range from pragmatic calculation and material necessity to outright ideological commitment.

The Houthis have worked hard to consolidate control over precisely this kind of tribal landscape. Over the past decade, they have weakened traditional tribal authority structures across their territories, co-opting some leaders and installing loyalists in place of others. They have repelled repeated tribal challenges while simultaneously weathering war with the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia, alongside airstrikes conducted by the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel.

All of that has cultivated a perception, among tribes and adversaries alike, that Houthi military capability is close to invincible. One tribal sheikh in northern Yemen, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, told Al Jazeera that the movement's military "supremacy" over the course of the long war has left a deep impression on the communities living under its rule.

Whether that aura of invincibility can be broken is now the central test of the government's offensive. If advances on the Red Sea coast, in Marib and in al-Jawf prove durable, hesitant tribes may calculate that the tide has genuinely turned — and supply the fighters and local knowledge needed to carry the war into Sanaa. If the gains stall, the government may find that its most powerful potential allies remain, once again, on the sidelines.