Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan Unite Against Ethiopia’s Regional Ambitions in New Alamein Declaration

Leaders from four African nations convened in Egypt over the weekend to issue a rare joint declaration that signals a hardening of regional alliances against Ethiopia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan met in New Alamein City on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast on Sunday, producing a statement that addresses multiple interconnected conflicts while implicitly challenging Addis Ababa’s positions on several contentious issues.

The quadrilateral summit comes at a moment of extraordinary turbulence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor. Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a rapidly escalating internal conflict, with federal forces having retaken the Tigray regional capital of Mekelle just one day before the leaders gathered in Egypt. The joint declaration issued by the four nations touches on Sudan’s ongoing civil war, the status of the Red Sea, and the long-running dispute over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile—all flashpoints that have strained relations across the region for years.

Central to the declaration is a call for political and peaceful resolution to the conflicts plaguing the region, including the civil war in Sudan that has raged since April 2023. The statement explicitly backs Sudan’s military-led government and advocates for a political process driven by Sudanese parties themselves. This position aligns with the Sudanese army’s stance against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the group it has been battling for control of the country. Notably, Sudan and Ethiopia have repeatedly traded accusations of interference in each other’s internal affairs, with Khartoum alleging Ethiopian involvement in its civil war.

The declaration’s emphasis on Sudanese sovereignty and its support for the military government reflect a broader alignment among the four nations. President el-Sisi, speaking earlier on Sunday, framed the gathering’s purpose around the necessity of dialogue over confrontation when addressing cross-border challenges. That language carries particular weight given Ethiopia’s claims that Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan are providing backing to an armed alliance currently fighting Ethiopian federal forces. Officials from all three accused nations have denied any involvement, but the accusations underscore the depth of mistrust that now characterizes Addis Ababa’s relationships with its neighbors.

Perhaps the most strategically significant element of the joint declaration concerns the Red Sea. The four leaders asserted that control of the vital waterway should remain exclusively with its coastal states. This position appears directly aimed at landlocked Ethiopia’s recent pursuit of sovereign access to the sea and the establishment of a naval presence. Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea gained independence in 1993 and has since depended on neighboring countries—primarily Djibouti—for maritime trade. Addis Ababa’s efforts to secure direct sea access have alarmed coastal nations, particularly Eritrea and Djibouti, and have now drawn a collective rebuke from the Alamein summit participants.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud offered a slightly more nuanced position in comments to Al Jazeera on Saturday, stating that Mogadishu does not oppose Ethiopia securing commercial access through Somali ports—provided such arrangements are negotiated directly with Somalia. This represents a potential opening for dialogue, though it also reinforces the principle that any maritime access must be agreed upon with coastal states rather than pursued unilaterally. Somalia has its own fraught history with Ethiopia, including a 2024 dispute over a port deal Ethiopia signed with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which Mogadishu considers part of its territory.

The declaration also addresses the long-simmering Nile River dispute. Egypt and Sudan, both downstream nations heavily dependent on the river’s waters, warned against what they described as unilateral measures that harm their interests. This language refers to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a massive hydropower project on the Blue Nile that Cairo and Khartoum have long argued threatens their water security. Egypt has repeatedly demanded a binding legal agreement governing the dam’s operation before it reaches full capacity, while Ethiopia insists the project is essential for its development and energy needs. The dispute has defied years of African Union-mediated negotiations, and the Alamein declaration suggests the two downstream nations are now coordinating their positions more closely than ever.

The timing of the summit is inseparable from events unfolding inside Ethiopia. On Sunday, Ethiopian government and allied forces completed the recapture of Mekelle, the capital of Tigray region, after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front announced it had temporarily withdrawn from the city to operate from elsewhere. The TPLF previously fought a devastating two-year war against the federal government that concluded with a fragile peace agreement in 2022. That truce now appears to have collapsed, with Ethiopia’s government confronting a seven-group armed alliance that includes the TPLF and other insurgent factions.

Ethiopian state media reported Sunday that former Tigray interim leader Abraham Belay stated the federal government is preparing a new temporary administration for the region and hopes to conduct regional elections within months. This suggests Addis Ababa intends to reassert full administrative control over Tigray rather than negotiate with the TPLF. The speed of the military advance and the government’s plans for political restructuring indicate a strategy aimed at decisively ending the Tigray insurgency before it can regain momentum.

Ethiopian officials have pointed directly at Eritrea, accusing Asmara of providing support to the rebel alliance. Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel responded on social media Sunday by asserting that Addis Ababa was manufacturing a pretext to attack Eritrea. The exchange highlights how quickly the Ethiopia-Eritrea relationship—which briefly appeared to be improving after a 2018 peace agreement—has deteriorated back toward open hostility. A military confrontation between the two nations would dramatically expand the scope of the regional crisis and potentially draw in other powers.

The Alamein declaration represents a significant diplomatic realignment in a region where alliances have historically shifted with dizzying speed. By bringing together Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan—nations with disparate interests but a shared apprehension about Ethiopian ambitions—the summit creates a loose but potentially durable coalition. For Egypt, the gathering reinforces its position on the Nile dispute and its opposition to Ethiopian sea access. For Eritrea, it signals solidarity against what Asmara perceives as an existential threat from its larger neighbor. For Somalia, it strengthens the principle of territorial integrity amid its own disputes with Ethiopia. And for Sudan’s military government, it offers regional legitimacy at a time when its international standing remains contested.

Whether this coalition translates into concrete action remains uncertain. Joint declarations are often long on principles and short on enforcement mechanisms, and the four leaders have not announced specific economic, military or diplomatic measures to pursue collectively. Nonetheless, the statement’s explicit references to the Red Sea, the Nile, and Sudan’s civil war—all issues in which Ethiopia is either a direct party or a suspected meddler—send an unmistakable message that Addis Ababa now faces a coordinated bloc of regional capitals aligned against several of its core strategic objectives. As Ethiopian forces press their advantage in Tigray and the country’s external relationships grow more strained, the coming weeks will test whether the Alamein coalition can move from shared grievances to shared strategy.