Rizky Amelia
Saudi Arabia is confronting critical security and economic calculations as Yemen’s Houthi fighters shatter multi-year front lines, seizing crucial coastal positions along the Red Sea and launching direct attacks against key energy infrastructure inside the kingdom.
The sudden military resurgence has disrupted battle lines that had remained broadly static since 2022. Houthi forces have launched a rapid offensive toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, inaugurating a dangerous new phase in the regional confrontation that flared following American and Israeli military strikes against Iran earlier this year in February.
Over recent days, the Iran-aligned movement has captured strategic positions along Yemen's western coast, including the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands as well as the Red Sea port city of Mocha. The group managed to secure these vital maritime locations despite facing resistance from forces aligned with Yemen's recognized government.
The offensive also saw the Houthis take control of Mayyun Island, situated directly within the Bab al-Mandeb shipping channel. The push has resulted in heavy fighting, with reports indicating that hundreds of people have died since the operations surrounding the strategic waterway began.
The rapid Houthi sweep along the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has amplified international alarm over global commerce. The importance of the waterway has increased significantly after Iran demonstrated its capacity to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israeli strikes, generating renewed upward pressure on worldwide energy prices.
For Riyadh, the security threats have moved past theoretical concerns into immediate operational disruptions. A Houthi drone strike recently hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a crucial 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) artery designed to transport roughly four percent of global oil supplies from the eastern Gulf coast to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The drone assault forced a shutdown of the critical conduit, leaving the timeline for resuming operations uncertain. With the pipeline offline and Houthi fighters entrenching themselves across Red Sea islands and coastal hubs, Saudi Arabia’s primary alternative export routes to bypass the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz are simultaneously facing severe pressure.
Regional specialists note that the coordinated maritime and infrastructure threats represent an expansive economic challenge orchestrated through Tehran's regional network. Baraa Shiban, a Yemen and Gulf researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, observed that Iran is effectively imperiling nearly a third of the world’s oil economy through its alignment with the Houthis.
According to Shiban, Tehran turned to economic disruption after recognizing the limits of pursuing a traditional front-line conflict against superior powers. This economic warfare is strategically designed to exploit Washington's exhaustion and reluctance to enter another prolonged military campaign, placing US leadership in a difficult position regarding further interventions inside Yemen.
With threats encroaching on its domestic economic lifelines, Saudi Arabia may look to newly formed regional defense arrangements. In August, Riyadh signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement alongside Turkey and Pakistan, establishing a framework for mutual defense assistance during external crises.
The potential activation of that agreement has become an urgent consideration. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently affirmed that the Mecca pact would be formally triggered should Saudi Arabia suffer an unprovoked assault or if the ongoing armed conflict in Yemen spills over into the kingdom's territory.
Security analysts emphasize that Saudi Arabia will inevitably have to formulate a military response against the advancing Houthi forces, whether through limited engagements or a longer-term operational strategy. In executing any response, Riyadh will need to test both its newly forged regional pacts and its long-standing security partnership with the United States.
While Washington's broader role remains uncertain, analysts suggest that the US cannot remain entirely detached from the escalating crisis. Shiban noted that American authorities will ultimately be compelled to provide at least tactical, intelligence, and logistical support to assist Saudi military efforts.
Nevertheless, the White House has demonstrated significant reluctance to plunge directly into active hostilities against the Houthis. Reports indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held two separate phone calls with US President Donald Trump requesting direct American military strikes against the group, but Trump declined on both occasions.
Speaking to journalists during a visit to Dublin, Trump stated that the Houthis had established contact with US officials to give assurances that they harbored no intention of engaging American military forces, while Vice President JD Vance insisted the administration remained fully attentive to the group's movements.
Caught between an expanding rebel offensive on its southern maritime border and reluctant international partners, Riyadh now faces high-stakes decisions on how aggressively to retaliate to safeguard its territory and protect vital international shipping lanes.
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