Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of Backing Rebels as Fears of Regional War Grow

Ethiopia's government has publicly accused three of its neighbors of supporting armed opposition groups, a charge that risks transforming the country's internal conflict into a wider regional confrontation. The allegations, leveled by the country's top military commander over the weekend, mark a sharp escalation in rhetoric as fighting intensifies across the country's northern regions.

Ethiopian army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula attributed the unrest to nations he described as Ethiopia's "historical and contemporary adversaries." He singled out Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt, claiming Eritrea was acting as the conduit linking the other two external powers with armed groups operating inside Ethiopian territory. The accusation came as renewed clashes spread across Tigray and into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.

All three accused nations have firmly rejected the allegations. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki told Al Jazeera that Cairo's foreign policy rests on "full respect for the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of states, and noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries." He added that Egypt is committed to international law and the United Nations Charter and rejects any actions that would threaten regional security and stability. Major-General Samir Farag, former head of the Egyptian Armed Forces' Morale Affairs Department, also dismissed the accusations as false, stating that interfering in the internal affairs of regional states has never been Egyptian policy.

Sudan's military rejected the claims as "baseless" and counter-accused Ethiopia of destabilizing behavior. Khartoum alleged that Addis Ababa has been supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which has been battling the Sudanese Armed Forces since 2023. Ethiopia has denied those allegations in turn. The mutual recriminations have further poisoned relations between two countries already at odds.

The accusations did not emerge in a vacuum. Tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt have simmered for years over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a project Cairo fears could reduce its share of the river's waters. That unresolved dispute, which dates back to 2011, has increasingly spilled into broader competition over regional security, the Red Sea, and influence across the Horn of Africa. The dam issue remains a central source of distrust between the two nations.

Sudan's ties with Ethiopia have similarly deteriorated since the outbreak of the Sudanese civil war, with Khartoum repeatedly accusing Addis Ababa of providing training, supplies, and safe territory to the RSF. Meanwhile, Ethiopia's relationship with Eritrea has soured dramatically since the two fought side by side against Tigrayan rebels between 2020 and 2022. Eritrea has grown alarmed by Ethiopia's push to secure direct access to the Red Sea, a strategic ambition that has unsettled its neighbors.

Against this backdrop of accumulated grievances, some analysts and Ethiopian opposition figures argue that Addis Ababa is invoking foreign conspiracies to rally public support behind its military. Mohamed Selim, deputy chair of the Egyptian parliament's African Affairs Committee, told Al Jazeera that the accusations appear aimed at diverting attention from Ethiopia's domestic troubles by creating an external enemy and unifying the internal front. Amani al-Tawil, director of the Africa Programme at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, echoed that assessment, describing the claims as "an understandable attempt to escape from internal crises."

Al-Tawil questioned why Egypt would choose this particular moment to intervene militarily in Ethiopia, noting the two countries have been locked in the dam dispute since 2011 without Cairo resorting to such action. She pointed instead to the breadth of a new opposition alliance in Ethiopia—seven armed groups representing diverse ethnic communities and regions announced a coalition last week—as a genuine challenge to Addis Ababa's authority.

The scale of the affected area is significant. Mohammed Hussein, chairman of the Prosperity Party's Afar Region Branch Office, told Al Jazeera that Tigray, Amhara, and Afar together hold a population estimated at more than 38 million. The regions also include territory near the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea, amplifying concerns that the fighting could escalate into a regional war.

Ammar Arki, a writer focused on Horn of Africa affairs, noted that Ethiopia has blamed Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea for internal instability at various points in recent history. He suggested the latest accusations could be an attempt to redirect domestic attention toward an external threat and consolidate support around the federal government. But Arki warned of serious consequences if the pattern continues. The longer Addis Ababa frames its internal crisis as the product of an "external conspiracy"—especially if neighboring states respond in kind—the greater the danger that Ethiopia's conflict will cross its borders and become a broader regional conflagration.

The coming weeks will prove critical. With fighting spreading across three northern regions, a newly formed opposition coalition challenging the government, and diplomatic relations with Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt already deeply strained, the risk that Ethiopia's civil conflict draws in outside powers appears to be rising rather than receding.