Ethiopia Teeters on the Brink of Renewed Civil War as Tigray Fighting Intensifies

Fierce clashes between Ethiopia's federal military and Tigrayan forces have reignited fears that the hard-won peace deal which halted one of Africa's deadliest recent conflicts could unravel entirely. The surge in violence comes just days after an unprecedented coalition of seven armed groups from across the country declared their shared intention to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration. Both the federal government and Tigrayan leaders are pointing fingers at each other, each accusing the other side of triggering the latest outbreak of hostilities.

For ordinary Ethiopians, the most immediate concern is the prospect of sliding back into a war they have spent nearly four years struggling to move past. The 2020-2022 conflict ravaged the northern Tigray region, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, forcing millions from their homes, and leaving the area almost completely sealed off from the rest of the world. The November 2022 Pretoria agreement, brokered under African Union auspices in South Africa, succeeded in ending the full-scale fighting—but it left several of the underlying grievances unresolved.

The roots of the current crisis stretch back decades. The Tigray People's Liberation Front began as an insurgent movement against Ethiopia's military regime during the 1970s. Over time, it evolved into the dominant power within the coalition that governed Ethiopia for close to thirty years. That dominance bred resentment in a nation comprising numerous ethnic communities, particularly since Tigrayans represent only roughly six percent of the population. When Abiy assumed the premiership in 2018, he established the Prosperity Party to supplant the old governing coalition, dramatically diminishing the TPLF's clout at the heart of national politics.

Tensions between Abiy's administration and the TPLF worsened steadily until full-scale war erupted in November 2020. Federal troops, backed by Eritrean forces and fighters from the neighboring Amhara region, battled Tigrayan forces in a conflict that inflicted catastrophic suffering on civilians. Although the Pretoria agreement formally ended the war, it failed to resolve key disputes—most notably the contested status of western Tigray.

Amhara fighters, who had aligned with federal forces during the 2020-2022 war, seized control of western Tigray, displacing hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans. Tigrayan leaders now demand the return of that territory and the right of displaced people to go back to their homes. Many in Amhara reject Tigray's claim, contending that western Tigray should never have been folded into Tigray when Ethiopia's regional borders were redrawn in 1992 following the collapse of the military government.

That unresolved territorial question remains a flashpoint, even though the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement have now joined the same alliance against Abiy. The federal government additionally accuses Tigrayan forces of failing to surrender weapons they were required to hand over. Tigrayan leaders counter that the government has not ensured the withdrawal of other armed forces or enabled displaced civilians to return, especially to western Tigray.

Political arrangements established after the war have also unraveled. The TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael reclaimed control of Tigray's administration earlier this year, pushing aside an interim authority that had been set up under the peace agreement. This shift has further complicated efforts to maintain stability in the region.

Jervin Naidoo, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told Al Jazeera that while the Pretoria Agreement has technically held since the war ended, there have been consistent violations by both sides. He noted that Tigrayans remain deeply aggrieved over western Tigray, the presence of outside forces, and questions about the region's autonomy. According to Naidoo, the government would likely characterize the TPLF as "a belligerent group trying to destabilise Ethiopia," while Tigrayan leaders could frame renewed fighting as a matter of protecting their region.

The newly formed Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival was announced this month by seven armed movements. Its most significant members include the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army. The coalition also encompasses groups from Ethiopia's Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz areas. Despite their differing aims and histories, they share a stated goal: removing Abiy's government from power.

Their agreement represents a remarkable reversal of the alliances that existed during the last war. Fano fighters who once fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF are now aligned with the TPLF. The Pretoria agreement helped reshape those relationships by ending the war between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, but Eritrea and Amhara forces—both of which had supported the government—were not signatories. Both later fell out with Abiy's administration.

The alliance's reach extends beyond northern Ethiopia. The OLA has been fighting federal forces in Oromia, in central Ethiopia, since 2018. A faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front has also joined, despite a separate peace agreement it signed with the government that same year. However, the ONLF leadership inside Ethiopia's Somali region insists it is not part of the new coalition.

Common opposition to Abiy does not mean the groups agree on Ethiopia's future. Tigrayan and Amhara members still hold competing claims to western Tigray. The government has also accused the alliance of seeking to dismantle the country. With fighting escalating and diplomatic efforts seemingly stalled, Ethiopia stands at a precarious crossroads—one that could determine whether it descends once more into widespread civil war or finds a path toward lasting stability.