Explosions Rock Addis Ababa as Federal Forces Battle Rebel Alliance Near Tigray Capital

Overnight explosions shook Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, marking a sharp escalation in the widening conflict between federal forces and a coalition of armed opposition groups now pressing the government on multiple northern fronts. Three diplomatic sources confirmed the blasts to Reuters on Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. The detonations came just hours after authorities in the capital imposed an emergency ban on drone flights over Addis Ababa and its surrounding areas — a restriction that suggested the government was bracing for exactly the kind of attack that followed.

A source connected to the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, the seven-group coalition battling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration, told Reuters that the alliance had launched several drone strikes inside Addis Ababa. According to that account, some of the strikes were aimed at the military's headquarters. The claim could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate confirmation from federal officials about the targets, damage or casualties.

The alliance is a broad and unusual coalition. It brings together seven armed factions, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), alongside groups drawn from the Amhara, Afar, Somali and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. The stated aim of the grouping is to remove Abiy's government from power, making it perhaps the most serious armed challenge the prime minister has faced since the 2022 Pretoria agreement that ended the previous Tigray war.

The reported strikes on the capital are significant because Addis Ababa has largely been insulated from the direct violence of the current conflict. If the alliance genuinely has the capacity to strike deep inside the capital — and to target military infrastructure there — it would signal a dramatic expansion in the reach of the insurgency and a new vulnerability for a government that had appeared to hold the strategic initiative.

That picture shifted further on Wednesday, when Al Jazeera's Muhammed Taha Tawakel, reporting from the Afar region, said fighting had spread from Amhara deep into Tigray as government forces advanced northward. The federal push has brought troops to within roughly 40 kilometres — about 25 miles — of Mekelle, Tigray's regional capital. The TPLF, meanwhile, has pulled its fighters back to new defensive positions, and some of its leaders have left Mekelle, according to Tawakel's reporting.

Thousands of civilians have fled Mekelle alongside those leaders, fearing an assault on the city. Electricity and internet services across the region have been cut, leaving residents largely cut off from information about the fighting closing in around them. The scenes evoke painful memories of the 2020-2022 war, when Mekelle was shelled and the wider Tigray region endured a devastating siege and humanitarian crisis.

The current round of fighting intensified last week, when Tigrayan forces launched a large-scale offensive — one the TPLF describes as a "defensive war" responding to federal drone and artillery strikes. Government troops and their allied fighters have since mounted a counteroffensive, and the front lines have shifted rapidly. Each side's account of who is on the defensive now depends heavily on where and when the fighting is being described.

The wider northern front is equally volatile. In the neighbouring Afar region, government forces told Reuters they had recaptured the towns of Erebti and Abaala, both near the border with Tigray. That claim has not been confirmed. Earlier in the week, Tawakel reported that control of the two towns was still contested, with the battle threatening to pull Ethiopia and Eritrea into a broader war.

Tawakel also reported that local mediation efforts aimed at persuading the forces holding Abala and Erebti to withdraw had collapsed. The fate of more than 80,000 Afar residents trapped in the contested area remains uncertain — a humanitarian concern compounding the already dire situation across the north.

The strategic stakes extend well beyond Ethiopia's borders. Tawakel noted that continued fighting in Afar risks regional repercussions, potentially drawing Eritrea and Ethiopia into a wider conflict. It also threatens food security, because key transport routes linking landlocked Ethiopia to the port of Djibouti pass through or near the affected areas. Any sustained disruption to those corridors would raise the cost of imports and could worsen shortages across the country.

Fighting has also reached zones along Ethiopia's frontiers with both Eritrea and Sudan, increasing the risk that the conflict could be regionalised. Ethiopia has repeatedly accused neighbouring states of backing the armed coalition — allegations those governments deny.

On Wednesday, Ahmed Hussein, Afar's deputy governor, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopia had come under an unprecedented attack. He said the assault sought to undermine the regional administration and install figures loyal to Eritrea. He called on Asmara to withdraw from Afar territory and held it responsible for the safety of civilians in areas controlled by opposition groups. Eritrea has not responded publicly to the accusation.

The combination of drone strikes on the capital, a government advance toward Mekelle, contested towns in Afar and accusations of foreign involvement paints a picture of a conflict expanding faster than mediation efforts can contain. For now, the trajectory points toward further escalation — with civilians in Tigray, Afar and beyond bearing the heaviest cost.