Greens Target Labour Stronghold in High-Stakes By-Election for Starmer's Old Seat

Voters in London's Holborn and St Pancras constituency are heading to the polls in a by-election that could signal shifting political allegiances, with the pro-Palestine Green Party mounting an aggressive challenge to Labour's decades-long dominance in the area. The contest, triggered by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation, has drawn fifteen candidates and emerged as an unexpected referendum on Labour's handling of the Gaza conflict.

At a recent hustings organized by the Camden Muslim Network, representatives from the Green Party and Liberal Democrats engaged with residents on issues ranging from local housing concerns to international affairs, while their Labour and Conservative counterparts were notably absent. Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali cited a scheduling conflict and late notification as reasons for her non-attendance, though event organizers disputed this account, insisting she had received a timely invitation.

The vacancy arose after Starmer stepped down from the seat he first won in 2015. Since its creation in 1983, Holborn and St Pancras has consistently returned Labour MPs, making it a symbol of the party's London stronghold. The by-election therefore represents both a test of Labour's resilience and an opportunity for challengers to capitalize on discontent over the party's Gaza stance.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski, one of the fifteen candidates, has positioned himself as the most vocal advocate for Palestinian rights in the race. During the hustings, he criticized Labour's position as "deeply cynical," pointing to what he described as a contradiction between expressions of regret over civilian casualties and the continued sale of weapons to Israel.

Polanski highlighted that his party had recently passed a motion characterizing Zionism as racism, and he confirmed the Greens' support for a comprehensive boycott of Israel. His remarks drew applause from attendees, suggesting that the issue resonates strongly within segments of the constituency.

Liberal Democrat candidate Patrick Stillman offered a contrasting approach, noting that his party has long advocated for Palestinian statehood but stops short of endorsing a full boycott. This distinction underscores the varied positions among opposition parties competing for votes in an area with a significant Muslim population and a history of pro-Palestine activism.

The Green Party has intensified its campaign with targeted leaflets emphasizing Abdi-Wali's tenure as a Labour councillor and her current role as leader of Camden Council, a position she assumed in May. One leaflet urges residents to "Bring change, Replace Labour, Vote Green," while its reverse accuses local Labour councillors of refusing to support a Palestine solidarity pledge or pension fund divestment.

The leaflet asserts that "only Greens continue to stand firm on Palestine," a claim Abdi-Wali rejected in comments to the Camden New Journal. She described the characterization as "obviously inaccurate" and sought to redirect attention to Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband's recent actions regarding Israeli settlements in the West Bank, suggesting Labour is actively engaged on the issue.

The dispute over divestment has become a flashpoint in the campaign. In January, Camden Friends of Palestine, a grassroots group formed in response to the war in Gaza, submitted a petition with 4,000 signatures demanding that the council withdraw its pension fund investments from companies linked to Israel's activities in the occupied Palestinian territories. Abdi-Wali, then a councillor, did not back the motion; instead, the council voted to refer the matter to the pension board for review.

Shadin, a 38-year-old resident and CFOP organizer, expressed disillusionment with Abdi-Wali's approach. She described the candidate as "incredibly silent on everything" absent a career incentive, calling it "disappointing." Shadin plans to vote for Polanski, reflecting a broader sentiment that watching the conflict unfold has driven many in her network away from mainstream parliamentary politics.

Beyond international affairs, housing remains a pressing local concern. A "2026 state of the borough" report from Camden Council revealed that 8,380 households were awaiting social housing at the end of March 2025, marking a 9.5 percent increase from the previous year. This statistic underscores the material pressures facing residents in a constituency that encompasses both affluent neighborhoods like Primrose Hill and areas of significant deprivation.

In Primrose Hill, opinions on the by-election varied. One resident indicated they would support Labour, while another expressed skepticism that any outcome would meaningfully alter their daily life. Elsewhere in Camden, a resident told Al Jazeera they were unaware the election was even taking place, as Labour canvassers were heard buzzing nearby estates—a scene that highlights uneven engagement across the constituency.

Recent polling suggests a competitive race. In the 2024 general election, Starmer secured 49 percent of the vote, while pro-Palestine independent candidate Andrew Feinstein finished second with 19 percent, demonstrating that a substantial portion of the electorate prioritizes the Palestinian cause. Both the gambling firm Ladbrokes and Stats for Lefties, which analyzes polling data, predict Labour will ultimately prevail.

Nevertheless, the Green Party's decision to field its leader in this contest signals a strategic bet that Labour's majority can be eroded by voters motivated primarily by Gaza. Whether that bet pays off will depend on turnout among constituencies that feel alienated from Labour's current foreign policy direction, as well as the ability of other candidates to consolidate opposition support.

The by-election outcome will be closely watched as an indicator of Labour's standing under new leadership and the extent to which international issues can reshape domestic political alignments in Britain's urban centers. For residents of Holborn and St Pancras, the choice extends beyond local governance to questions of representation, accountability, and the values they wish their MP to champion on the national stage.