Iran Claims Hormuz Attacks Forced US Warships Back as Oil Traffic Rebounds

Iran is asserting that its missile and drone strikes on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have achieved a strategic victory by compelling the United States Navy to reposition its warships farther away from the Iranian coastline. Tehran's claims come amid a flurry of reports about American casualties and a gradual, if fragile, recovery in energy shipments through the vital waterway.

According to US media reports published on Sunday, eight US Marines suffered smoke inhalation and possible traumatic brain injuries on September 14 after their vessel was targeted by an Iranian antiship cruise missile in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera sought comment from US Central Command (CENTCOM) regarding these reports but received no immediate response. CENTCOM has previously stated that American vessels successfully evaded Iranian ballistic missile attacks earlier this month.

The officials quoted in the reports on the Marines' injuries noted that the vessel they were aboard at the time of the attack was not a US Navy ship. The Pentagon had earlier quietly updated its list of war-wounded, adding 29 US sailors and eight Marines. This adjustment brings the total number of service members wounded since the conflict began on February 28 to 861, with at least 19 deaths recorded.

In recent days, Iranian state-linked media outlets have claimed that US warships pulled back earlier this month from their previous blockade positions. These reports suggest that American vessels, which were previously stationed closer to the Iranian port of Chabahar and the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, have now moved farther into the central Arabian Sea, reportedly to avoid Iranian missiles.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, appeared to reference these US naval movements in a message attributed to him and published by state media on Monday. He stated that US forces are now refraining from advancing further "because of the painful blows they have suffered at the hands of the valiant fighters and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz." Khamenei added a stark warning: "Whenever they have taken that risk, they have brought harm upon themselves. And soon the Arabian Sea, too, will empty itself of them."

For its part, the United States continues to maintain a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports in some form, while rejecting the Islamic Republic's latest proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, meanwhile, says it is prepared for both defensive and offensive military action if necessary. Analysts believe controlled escalation is expected, even if a renewed all-out war is unlikely to be on the immediate horizon.

Maritime law and security expert Ian Ralby told Al Jazeera that Iran's authorities are likely to continue targeting ships because the strategy has served Tehran's aims during the war. He pointed to the similar success of the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who have employed comparable tactics for nearly three years. Ralby, who is also president of the good governance nonprofit Auxilium Worldwide, explained that missile and drone strikes have become a means by which a weaker military power can gain a significant strategic advantage and impact global markets.

"It is fairly certain, therefore, that whether US personnel are on board or not, attacking ships will continue to be part of Iran's approach to fighting, not only for its continued existence, but for its strategic regional hegemony," Ralby said.

The escalating rhetoric from Iranian authorities coincides with a notable increase in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, although the waterway remains far from its pre-war unimpeded state. Despite the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' insistence that the strait remains closed to vessels that do not coordinate passage with Iranian authorities, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday that nearly 13 million barrels of crude were passing through it each day.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a higher estimate of 15 to 22 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with roughly 20 million bpd before the war. Bessent also claimed on Sunday that Iran was unable to export its own oil through the blockade, leaving it with only about 15 million barrels already stored at sea that could be shipped to China within two weeks.

Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were expected to average 7.4 million bpd in September, according to preliminary data released by Kpler on Monday. The data and analytics company said on Friday that 19 tankers transited the strait in the week ending September 27, including 17 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each capable of carrying two million barrels of oil. Regional exports, including shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran, rebounded to 12.8 million bpd in September, the highest level since the start of the war.

Analysts appearing on Sunday on "Be Vaght-e Iran," a war-focused Iranian state television programme that adopts a hardline position, acknowledged that available evidence indicated at least seven million barrels of crude were passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily. The analysts said Arab Gulf governments were using shuttle systems to move oil out of the region, with US forces providing protection. Because the operations involved state-backed arrangements, the analysts said, they could avoid relying on international mechanisms that might otherwise be subject to Iranian interdiction.