Iraq Enters a New Security Era as US-Led Coalition Forces Complete Their Withdrawal

United States military personnel have now left their remaining bases inside Iraq, bringing the American-led international mission against the Islamic State group to a formal close and opening an uncertain new phase for Iraqi security. The departure was completed as the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIL expired, ending a military presence that had stretched across more than two decades of Iraqi history.

To mark the moment, Baghdad launched four days of national observances running from September 30 to October 3 under the banner of "Sovereignty Days." Officials framed the holiday as more than a ceremonial gesture, describing it as a symbol of the country's return to full control over its own territory and security decisions after years of foreign military involvement.

The handover did not happen overnight. A joint statement issued by Washington and Baghdad in September 2024 laid out a two-stage plan for winding down the coalition's work. Under that framework, combat operations inside Iraq were to conclude no later than the end of September 2025, while a second phase focused on supporting operations against ISIL in neighbouring Syria was to run until September 2026.

Earlier this year, Iraqi authorities confirmed that coalition advisers had finished pulling out of federal areas of the country. Logistical backing for missions in Syria was to be maintained through a facility in Erbil, the principal city of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, according to arrangements set by a joint US-Iraq military commission.

The completion of the pullout closes a chapter that began in 2014, when American troops were invited back to help Iraqi forces confront and ultimately defeat ISIL. That mission, which lasted roughly 12 years, followed an earlier withdrawal ordered by President Barack Obama in 2011. At the peak of the US occupation in 2007, some 170,000 American troops were stationed in Iraq following the 2003 invasion. In recent years, the US presence had shrunk to around 2,500 personnel, concentrated mainly in the north, alongside forces deployed in Syria.

What is leaving Iraq is not only personnel. Military hardware, including critical air defence systems, is being removed as part of the drawdown. Those defences, particularly the systems based in Erbil, had been used to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and drones during the current conflict, giving them a significance that goes well beyond routine equipment accounting.

Kurdish military commander Sirwan Barzani told Reuters that Iraq stands to lose three further capabilities with the American exit: US intelligence, logistical support and drone operations. Those assets had underpinned much of the coalition's effectiveness, and their absence is expected to be felt most sharply in the Kurdistan region.

The Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, which manages the Kurdish armed forces and played a central role in the campaign against ISIL, reported that the region has absorbed more than 1,000 drone and ballistic missile strikes since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. The scale of those attacks has intensified worries about what happens once coalition protective systems are gone.

KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani voiced that anxiety publicly on Sunday, warning that leaving the Kurdistan region without any defence system is a cause for concern. His own office was targeted in a drone strike last month, an attack officials say was launched from Iranian territory, underscoring the direct threat facing Kurdish leadership.

Baghdad, for its part, insists that the transition has been carefully managed. Iraqi officials say many security responsibilities were handed to national forces well before the deadline passed. On Monday, Iraqi Air Force commander Lieutenant General Khalid al-Tamimi told state media that no coalition force had carried out any duties inside the country since the start of 2026.

Al-Tamimi said Iraqi drones have taken over reconnaissance roles previously filled by coalition aircraft, and that the air force now conducts daily aerial surveys of the country. He also highlighted the independent operation and maintenance of Iraq's F-16 fighter fleet, noting that the aircraft had flown missions for ten days without external assistance.

Those claims point to a broader argument advanced by Baghdad: that the coalition's departure reflects an Iraqi military that is more capable than it was when ISIL swept across large parts of the country in 2014. Whether that capability can compensate for the loss of US intelligence, air defence and logistics is the central question hanging over the new arrangement.

The stakes extend beyond Iraq's borders. The coalition's expiration removes a formal framework that had linked operations in Iraq and Syria, at a time when regional tensions remain high and Iranian-linked attacks continue. How effectively Iraqi and Kurdish forces fill the gap will shape not only domestic stability but also the wider balance of power in the region.

For now, the celebrations in Baghdad reflect a genuine milestone: the end of a foreign military presence that many Iraqis have long wanted to see concluded. But the coming months will test whether sovereignty, in practical security terms, can be sustained without the partners who are now packing up and leaving.