Kurdish Peshmerga Face a Defining Test as US-Led Coalition Exits Iraq

Iraq's Kurdish armed forces are stepping into uncharted territory after the United States formally concluded Operation Inherent Resolve, the 12-year military campaign against ISIL (ISIS), and completed the withdrawal of its troops from the country. The pullout, announced on Wednesday, was carried out in line with a September 30 deadline that Washington and Baghdad had agreed upon two years earlier, and it also brought an end to the presence of other international partners in the anti-ISIL coalition.

For the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which administers Iraq's semi-autonomous northern region, the departure of coalition forces represents a fundamental shift. The Peshmerga had for years depended heavily on close military backing from the US and its allies, both to protect the region's autonomy and to hold the line against ISIL. With that support structure now gone, Kurdish leaders are confronting difficult questions about political unity, military readiness, and the future of Erbil's relationship with Baghdad.

Just days before the coalition's exit, on September 21, the KRG announced that it had merged Kurdish armed factions into a single fighting force. At a ceremony marking the occasion, KRG President Nechirvan Barzani described the move as a major national achievement aimed at consolidating the region's institutions. "Kurdistan needs one force, one ministry, and one command," he declared, adding that the Peshmerga must become a national force shielded from party interference and disputes.

Barzani confirmed that militias tied to his Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and its long-standing rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), had been placed under one structure. The two parties have dominated Kurdish politics in Iraq for decades, and their separate armed forces have historically operated under distinct commands, one based in Erbil and the other in Sulaymaniyah.

Zeidon Alkinani, a Middle East political analyst and founding director of the Doha-based Arab Perspectives Institute, told Al Jazeera that the unification could contribute to stabilising Iraq as a whole. He noted that the country's most corrosive rivalries have tended to run within communities — among Shia factions and among Kurdish factions — rather than between them. According to Alkinani, diminishing the influence of the KDP and PUK party structures inside the Peshmerga would strengthen Iraq's overall stability and give Erbil a firmer legal footing in its dealings with Baghdad.

Yet the consolidation effort is far from complete. In his remarks, Barzani cautioned that the next phase "may be even more difficult" than the Kurdish struggles of the past, and he called on the Peshmerga to rise above party loyalties. Alkinani echoed that concern, warning that the real test will be whether the merger can survive given the persistence of two geographically distinct military commands.

Retired Lieutenant General Jabbar al-Yawar, former secretary general of the Peshmerga Ministry in the KRG, told Al Jazeera that the KDP and PUK remain entangled in numerous political disputes, ranging from the governance of Kurdistan to relations with the federal government in Baghdad. He cautioned that if the forces stay tied to political parties, those disputes could easily spill over into the military institutions themselves.

On the operational front, the Ministry of Peshmerga insists its forces are prepared for the post-coalition era. Spokesperson Major General Othman Mohammed told Al Jazeera that the Peshmerga "has always been on full alert," pointing to its role in pushing back ISIL in 2014 despite limited resources. He also highlighted the strong cooperation and coordination between Peshmerga commanders and their counterparts in Iraq's other security forces — ties that have taken on greater significance now that Iraq must rely on its own capabilities to detect and disrupt ISIL activity.

Still, analysts see deep anxiety beneath the official confidence. Mohammed Salih, a non-resident senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Iraqi and regional affairs, said there is "considerable uncertainty and concern among Kurds surrounding the US withdrawal." Many Kurds are asking whether the American departure signals the end of Washington's commitment to Kurdish security, he told Al Jazeera, recalling that the US has served as a key security guarantor for the Kurdistan region for roughly three decades.

A further complication is the loss of critical military assets. According to Salih, the US removed key air defence systems as it withdrew — a development of serious concern for Erbil, which has weathered several drone and missile attacks since the start of the US war on Iran. The absence of those defensive systems leaves the region more exposed at a moment of heightened regional tension.

Erbil, for its part, has signalled that it intends to keep cooperating with Baghdad under Iraq's federalist framework. The day after coalition forces left, KDP leader and former KRG President Masoud Barzani emphasised that there was "very strong coordination with the Iraqi federal government to confront any kind of threat or danger, whether it comes under the name of ISIS or any other name." In Baghdad, he also expressed support for the federal government's efforts to combat corruption, disarm Iran-aligned militias, and resolve outstanding disputes with Erbil.

The coming months will reveal whether the Peshmerga's newly declared unity can hold under pressure. The force must now manage the loss of its most important foreign partner, bridge the divide between two regional commands with separate political allegiances, and define its place within Iraq's national security architecture. For a region that has long relied on external guarantees, the era of self-reliance has arrived — and with it, a set of challenges that Kurdish leaders acknowledge may prove harder than any they have faced before.