Oil Flows Through Hormuz Rebound Despite Worsening Attacks on Tankers

Oil exports from the Gulf have staged a striking recovery in recent weeks even as security conditions around the Strait of Hormuz deteriorate, according to maritime experts and tracking firms. The divergence between rising hydrocarbon volumes and mounting violence at sea has raised questions about how long the current flow levels can be sustained.

Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler shows that Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, climbed back to more than 81 percent of their pre-war levels in September. Crude exports from the broader Middle East surpassed pre-war volumes on 14 separate days during the month, a notable milestone given the persistent threat environment.

The recovery has not come without cost. On Tuesday, India's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that 12 crew members aboard a Panama-flagged tanker were injured when an unknown projectile struck the vessel as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. The incident underscores the risks facing shipping companies that continue to move cargo through one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.

Before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz routinely accommodated roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day. Shipments passing through the waterway accounted for approximately 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies, making it arguably the single most important energy corridor on the planet.

In retaliation for US and Israeli strikes, Iran effectively shuttered the strait, while Washington maintained a blockade on Iranian ports. The resulting standoff choked off a substantial portion of global energy trade and sent shockwaves through international oil markets.

At least seven tanker-related incidents have been reported over the past week alone, according to shipping intelligence service Marisks. On October 1, the Kuwaiti-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier MT Kazimah III caught fire after being struck while transiting the strait. Five crew members were safely rescued from the vessel following the incident.

Three days later, on October 4, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was hit northeast of Oman's Jazirat Umm al-Fayarin. The strike damaged the ship's engine room, though no casualties were reported. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, where Iran-backed Houthis have been targeting Saudi-linked shipping.

The threats persisted into Monday, when a tanker entering the strait near Oman was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ordered to reverse course or face attack, according to UKMTO. Such harassment tactics have become a recurring feature of the security landscape.

Despite the violence, oil exports from the region have risen dramatically. Kpler's provisional data shows the seven-day moving average for Middle East crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, compared with an average of roughly 18 million bpd during the 12 months preceding the war. Vortexa separately estimated that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports had reached 18.6 million bpd.

However, not all of that oil is actually traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler estimates that about 40 percent of current oil exports now bypass the strait entirely, while much of the crude that does cross is transferred between tankers offshore. These ship-to-ship transfers involve smaller shuttle boats that frequently disable their transponders to avoid detection, adding a layer of opacity to the trade.

The recovery has been made possible largely by Saudi Arabia's use of alternative export infrastructure. According to Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, two factors explain the increasing availability of Middle Eastern crude: "the effective use of the East-West pipeline by Saudi Arabia and ship-to-ship transfer around the Strait of Hormuz."

Saudi's East-West pipeline carries oil from fields in the eastern part of the country to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea in the west, providing a route that avoids the contested waterway altogether. This infrastructure has become a vital lifeline for Gulf producers seeking to maintain export volumes amid the security crisis.

Partly as a result of the increased oil exports, prices continue to slide. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 0.75 percent to $99.57 a barrel on Tuesday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2 percent to $88.37 a barrel, according to Oilprice.com data. The price declines suggest markets are reacting to supply availability rather than the escalation in attacks.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for the apparent increase in oil flows, asserting that Washington controls the strait and that American forces are succeeding in protecting vessels passing through Hormuz. Iran has disputed those claims, describing the amount of oil passing through the waterway as "negligible" and insisting it still maintains effective control of the strait.

Shipping companies, meanwhile, are contending with higher freight, insurance and security costs as they navigate the increasingly perilous corridor. The sustainability of the current export levels will depend on whether producers can continue leveraging bypass routes and whether the security situation stabilizes or deteriorates further. For now, the data suggests that Gulf oil is flowing at near-normal levels — but the margin for error remains dangerously thin.