Oil Traffic Rebounds in Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Strategic Grip Shows Signs of Slipping

As Washington and Tehran engage mediators in a bid to halt seven months of open conflict, conditions on the water in the Strait of Hormuz are quietly changing in a way that could reshape the balance of power at the negotiating table. Ship-tracking data indicates that vessel traffic through the vital chokepoint has been climbing steadily, with some assessments placing oil and petroleum flows at close to 80 percent of the levels recorded before the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran started on February 28. That recovery may erode one of Tehran's most potent instruments of pressure as it seeks terms favourable to itself in talks to end a war that has battered its already sanctions-weakened economy, compounded by a US blockade targeting Iranian ships and ports.

Analysts nonetheless caution against concluding that conditions in the strait are returning to normal or that Iran will capitulate easily, despite its mounting economic difficulties. Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera that while the movement of oil through Hormuz is an encouraging sign, the flows cannot yet be considered fully safe or assured, especially as long as the broader conflict remains unresolved. The caution reflects a wider reality: crude prices are still elevated worldwide, including inside the United States, where President Donald Trump is approaching a pivotal midterm election that could cost his party control of both chambers of Congress. Insurance premiums for tankers also remain high, and energy shipments through the waterway are far from secure, which suggests Iran's leverage is being diluted rather than eliminated.

Figures compiled by commodity analytics firm Kpler point to a marked rebound in Middle Eastern oil exports. Crude shipments reached roughly 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the firm reported this week, the strongest showing since hostilities erupted in late February. Volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz specifically were projected to hit about 9.719 million bpd over the month. Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the upswing, with its exports climbing from 2.446 million bpd in August to approximately 5.4 million bpd in September. Kpler estimates that Middle East crude exports have now recovered to just under 80 percent of their pre-war levels, though they remain about 3.2 million bpd below the 19.513 million bpd shipped in February. The data also excludes vessels transiting Hormuz with their tracking systems disabled, meaning real traffic could be higher still.

Before the war, an estimated 120 to 140 ships crossed the waterway each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying roughly 20 million barrels daily. At the peak of the fighting, traffic through the strait dwindled to as few as two tankers a day after Iran effectively shut the passage in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes. That dramatic contraction underscored how quickly Tehran could throttle a route that carries a substantial share of the world's energy supply, and it became a central element of Iran's efforts to counter Washington's military and economic pressure.

The recent rebound in oil flows creates a dilemma for Tehran. If large volumes of crude can continue moving through the strait even while Iran itself is hemmed in by a US naval blockade, then its ability to extract concessions by threatening the waterway weakens considerably. The strategic calculus is straightforward: leverage depends on the credibility of disruption, and each week of restored traffic reduces the urgency for Washington and its allies to make concessions simply to keep oil moving.

Iran, for its part, dismisses any suggestion that its grip on the strait is loosening. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said on Wednesday that a "military conflict" is still under way in the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed Iranian forces have long been striking small vessels and blocking their passage, while asserting that America has not responded. His remarks, made to the semi-official Fars news agency, signal that Tehran intends to project continued control over the waterway regardless of the export data.

Security conditions on the water remain volatile. Also on Wednesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that unidentified projectiles struck three ships in the waterway a day earlier, among them a crude oil tanker. The incidents serve as a reminder that even as commercial traffic recovers, the strait is still an active and unpredictable environment where vessels and crews face real risk.

Oil prices offer further evidence that Iran has not been stripped of all its leverage. Brent crude slipped 2.6 percent on Tuesday to $102.59 a barrel as traders reacted to recovering Middle Eastern exports. Even so, the benchmark was on course for a gain of roughly 13 percent over September, reflecting persistent concerns about supply disruptions and the unresolved conflict. Elevated prices carry political consequences in the United States, where voters heading to the polls in the midterms are sensitive to fuel costs.

The interaction between military pressure, insurance costs and market psychology means the strait's recovery is fragile. Tanker operators must weigh the savings from resumed routes against the risk of attack or seizure, and underwriters are pricing that risk into premiums that keep shipping expensive. Until a durable settlement is reached, those costs will continue to limit how fully traffic can return to pre-war norms.

Taken together, the picture is one of partial normalisation rather than a decisive shift. Iran retains the physical capacity to disrupt the strait, as the IRGC's statements and the reported attacks on vessels demonstrate, but the flow of oil is no longer as easily throttled as it was during the war's most intense phase. Whether that translates into diminished bargaining power at the negotiating table will depend on how long the fragile calm holds and whether mediators can convert the improving traffic figures into momentum toward a lasting agreement.

For now, the data suggests a gradual erosion of Iran's strongest card rather than its disappearance from the deck. Oil continues to move, prices remain historically high, and both sides still have reasons to keep talking. The coming weeks will reveal whether the Strait of Hormuz becomes a pathway to peace or remains a pressure point in an unresolved economic and military standoff.