Putin Expands Russian Military by 15,500 Troops as Ukraine War Grinds On

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree authorizing an increase of 15,500 military personnel to the country's armed forces, marking the fourth such expansion this year as Moscow's battlefield momentum in Ukraine continues to stall after more than four and a half years of conflict.

The decree, signed on Sunday, sets the authorized personnel strength of the Russian armed forces at 2,441,630 units, including 1,550,500 military personnel. It did not specify why the additional troops were needed or how they would be recruited, leaving observers to interpret the move amid a war that has largely settled into a grinding war of attrition.

This latest order follows similar expansions issued in March, June and July. Combined, the four decrees have added 47,860 military personnel to Russia's authorized force size since March, according to the source material. The repeated increases suggest a sustained effort to replenish and enlarge Russia's ranks even as the ground war advances slowly.

Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, characterized the expansion as largely administrative rather than a fundamental shift in strategy. He told Al Jazeera that the additional 15,000 troops would not meaningfully alter the dynamics of the conflict, and noted that a diplomatic resolution remains distant.

The Kremlin has not publicly explained its reasoning for the decree. However, the order arrives as Russia contends with mounting human and material losses while making only limited territorial gains, a combination that has raised questions about the sustainability of its war effort.

Olena Halushka, a board member at the Anti-Corruption Action Centre in Kyiv, said Russia's campaign is not unfolding as planned. She pointed to last year's Anchorage summit, where Putin reportedly continued to demand Ukraine's withdrawal from the remainder of the Donetsk region that Russia had failed to capture, apparently expecting Kyiv would soon lose those lands regardless. A year later, she said, conditions on the battlefield show the opposite.

Halushka described the latest decree as likely part of a broader, ongoing effort to expand the manpower available for a protracted war, and suggested it would probably not be the last such order. Her assessment underscores a view among Ukraine analysts that Moscow is preparing for a long conflict rather than a quick resolution.

Russia's territorial advances have slowed sharply this year. The widespread use of drones has made large concentrations of troops and rapid movements increasingly hazardous, blunting the kind of mechanized offensives that characterized earlier phases of the war. Ukraine's military said earlier this month that Russian losses in 2026 had surpassed 300,000, and estimated Moscow suffered more than 20,000 casualties in the first half of September alone, figures Al Jazeera could not independently verify.

The expansions come amid repeated Ukrainian claims that Moscow is seeking to bolster its forces with foreign personnel and is preparing another mobilization, allegations the Kremlin denies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that more than 8,000 North Korean soldiers are currently in Russia, with preparations under way to deploy another 10,000. North Korea has already sent an estimated 14,000 to 15,000 soldiers to support Russia since 2024, according to Ukrainian and South Korean estimates.

Putin last ordered a mobilization of reservists in September 2022, after Russia suffered a series of battlefield setbacks. He has since dismissed suggestions of another broad mobilization as Ukrainian disinformation, opting instead for incremental increases to the authorized force size and recruitment of volunteers and contract soldiers.

Some analysts caution against viewing the latest expansion solely through the lens of Ukraine. Alexey D Muraviev, a professor and senior research fellow in Defence and Strategic Studies at Edith Cowan University, told Al Jazeera that implementing the increase would require time for planning, recruitment and the formation of new units, meaning it would not address Russia's immediate operational needs on the front lines.

In Muraviev's assessment, Putin's decision is driven more by longer-term strategic considerations, including Moscow's tensions with NATO and what he described as an increased possibility of a major open conflict between Russia and the alliance in the foreseeable future. He said this dynamic also fuels Russia's continuous military reorganization, expansion of its standing force and creation of new units, including army divisions and marine divisions.

Muraviev added that Russia is also concerned about the buildup of Japan's military power and US military power in the Pacific, and the perceived need to respond to those security concerns. That perspective suggests the troop increase may be as much about preparing for potential future contingencies as about the current war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the fighting continues with little sign of de-escalation. Russia and Ukraine keep exchanging major aerial attacks even as the ground war moves slowly, and at least 10 people were killed and more than 80 wounded in Russian attacks across Ukraine on Monday alone, according to the source material.

Russian drones struck the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv, setting the building ablaze, while attacks were also reported in Dnipro, Kharkiv and other areas. The strikes underscore how both sides have increasingly relied on drones and long-range weapons to inflict damage, a shift that has made the battlefield more deadly and less predictable while complicating any path toward a negotiated settlement.