Speculation Grows Over Iranian 'Toll' as Hormuz Oil Exports Defy Blockade

Middle East crude exports have rebounded above pre-war levels despite Iran's ongoing efforts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime tracking data, but a provocative new theory suggests Gulf nations may be paying Tehran for safe passage through the critical waterway.

Crude shipments from the region surpassed pre-conflict volumes on four separate days during the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day, provisional figures from maritime intelligence firm Kpler show. Before the US-Israel war on Iran erupted in February, exports averaged roughly 18 million bpd. The seven-day average climbed above that benchmark for the first time since hostilities began, with crude exports excluding Iran also recovering to at least 16.5 million bpd across September.

The unexpected surge has largely been credited to US naval vessels escorting tankers out of the strait, combined with a growing reliance on ship-to-ship transfers that lower the risk of vessels being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. These offshore transfers allow crude to be consolidated onto larger carriers away from the immediate danger zone.

Yet the persistence of elevated oil prices despite recovering export volumes has puzzled analysts. Brent crude was trading around $101.59 per barrel on Monday, a marginal 0.71 percent decline, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.2 percent. These figures remain substantially higher than pre-war levels.

The conventional explanation points to still-elevated insurance premiums driven by fears of Iranian attacks, alongside a market that continues to price in the possibility of a return to full-scale conflict. But a senior Kpler analyst last week offered an alternative interpretation that, if accurate, would represent a significant financial windfall for Tehran.

Michelle Brohard, Kpler's head of policy and geopolitical risk, suggested in an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston that some Gulf countries could be paying Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. She speculated that a toll system may be providing ships with safe transit, potentially handing Tehran a substantial portion of each cargo's value.

Brohard acknowledged that she suspects these countries recognize the arrangement is untenable — both from the perspective of relying on US escorts and from paying Iran as much as 10 to 20 percent of their cargo value. She characterized the current dynamic as a race to export as much oil as possible before the war potentially restarts. The claim has not been independently verified, and Brohard presented it as speculation rather than a conclusion supported by hard evidence.

The theory gains some credence from earlier reporting. As far back as March, the shipping journal Lloyd's List reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had already established a "toll booth" system to control vessel traffic through the strait. The Trump administration has repeatedly stated throughout the conflict that Iran will not be permitted to charge tolls under any potential agreement with Washington.

Before the war, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports transited the Strait of Hormuz, making it the single most important chokepoint in global energy markets. The strait routinely accommodated about 125 large commercial vessels daily, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, and container ships. Its closure has sent global fuel costs soaring and tested agricultural sectors worldwide.

Despite the rebound in exports, the traffic pattern has shifted dramatically. According to Kpler, 40 percent of crude now bypasses Hormuz entirely, with most oil that does cross the strait switching tankers offshore. Much of this redirected flow moves through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while supplies transported via the Red Sea have become an increasingly vital alternative route.

The figures also exclude any vessels that may have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders disabled to avoid detection — a practice that could mask additional export volume and complicate efforts to assess the true scale of traffic.

Iran disputes suggestions that it has lost control of the waterway. Senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said on Sunday that only three to four million bpd were traveling along a US-supervised route, describing that volume as "negligible" compared with pre-war traffic levels.

The export recovery has continued into October. Iraq's state-owned Oil Tanker Company announced on Saturday that it had transported two million barrels of crude on a very large crude carrier through the Strait of Hormuz — what its director general described as the company's first such operation in decades.

Adding to the complex market dynamics, the Group of Seven countries last week announced a decision to release 100 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. The move was intended to ease price pressures, though crude costs remain stubbornly elevated, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory and the reliability of supply routes.

The situation presents a strategic dilemma for Gulf states. Paying Iran for passage would effectively fund Tehran's war effort while undermining the US-led pressure campaign. Yet refusing to do so risks leaving millions of barrels of crude stranded, with devastating consequences for their own economies and global energy markets. For now, the toll allegation remains unproven, but it offers a potential explanation for the paradox of rising exports alongside persistently high prices.