Putri Anggraini
A powerful El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean has officially escalated into a "very strong" event, raising concerns of widespread climate extremes and humanitarian challenges across the globe. Data released on September 14, 2026, by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirms that ocean temperatures have crossed the critical warming threshold of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), conferring "super El Nino" status on the system.
Atmospheric scientists are closely monitoring the rapid intensification of the phenomenon, which initially formed in June 2026. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the system is expected to reach maximum strength in early 2027 and remain active through the March-to-May period. Meteorologists warn that the event is developing into one of the most powerful El Nino episodes ever recorded.
As defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Nino is a recurring natural climate mechanism occurring every two to seven years, driven by anomalous heating of surface waters across the central and eastern Pacific. Typical cycles emerge between March and June, achieve peak intensity between November and February, and can endure for as long as 18 months.
The accelerating oceanic warmth is anticipated to generate a global temperature surge over the coming months. The WMO projects warmer-than-average conditions across nearly all regions between September and November. Because the planet typically experiences the heaviest heating impacts during the year following the onset of the cycle, forecasters anticipate unprecedented thermal records in the near future.
The WMO estimates an 86 percent probability that global temperatures will surpass the benchmark set in 2024 as the warmest year on record before 2030. Forecast leader Leon Hermanson pointed out that the emergence of an El Nino late in 2026 sharply elevates the likelihood that 2027 will establish new planetary heat records.
Alongside elevated temperatures, the powerful event is altering global rainfall patterns, creating severe geographic contrasts characterized by heavy deluge in some regions and severe droughts in others. Heightened precipitation is projected for East Africa, South America, and the southern United States, whereas widespread dryness is expected across South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Southern Africa.
In East Africa, meteorological agencies anticipate unusually intense downpours from October through December. The Kenya-based IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre estimates a 90 percent likelihood of wetter conditions in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. Because these seasonal downpours normally supply up to 70 percent of the region's annual precipitation, excessive rainfall presents a severe threat of flash flooding and displacement.
Similar patterns of heavy rainfall are projected in the Americas. Coastal regions of Ecuador and northern Peru are forecast to see increased precipitation in early 2027, while excess moisture is expected to spread across southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina between September 2026 and January 2027. The southern tier of the United States is likewise expected to experience wetter conditions.
Conversely, vast swathes of Asia are confronting moisture deficits. Summer monsoon rains in India and Pakistan have already underperformed, with the India Meteorological Department recording a 15 percent drop in nationwide rainfall below normal levels between June 1 and September 9.
In Southeast Asia, extended dry weather is heightening environmental hazards. Indonesia’s meteorological agency, BMKG, documented 5,019 fire hotspots by late July, noting that peatlands and forests in Sumatra and Kalimantan face the most severe wildfire risks.
Drought conditions are also expanding across the Southern Hemisphere. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology anticipates below-average precipitation throughout its southern and eastern territories, where elevated temperatures are exacerbating bushfire dangers. Simultaneously, the South African Weather Service projects below-normal rainfall alongside above-normal heat for most of the nation during the spring and summer months.
In North America, the super El Nino is fundamentally shifting winter weather by altering the jet stream. By pulling the high-altitude storm track southward and stretching it eastward, the system directs weather systems across the southern third of the continent. NOAA scientists refer to the phenomenon as "the great snowfall suppressor," as it historically reduces snowfall across the Great Lakes, interior New England, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, western Canada, and Alaska, while occasionally boosting precipitation at higher elevations in the southern United States.
These widespread meteorological disturbances are already taking a toll on agriculture. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization highlighted that rain-fed crops, particularly staples such as maize and rice, are at immediate risk from deficient rainfall spanning Southern Africa, the Sahel, and South and Southeast Asia.
The compounding weather shocks are expected to precipitate a significant humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that the super El Nino could push at least 49 million additional people into acute hunger by the end of 2027, elevating the total number of food-insecure individuals across 45 analyzed nations from 225 million to 274 million. Carl Skau, the acting executive director of the WFP, cautioned that the climate event poses an immense danger to millions of already vulnerable populations, with Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, and Latin America facing the steepest increases in food distress.
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