Rizky Amelia
The administration of United States President Donald Trump has formally unveiled a controversial plan to remove millions of non-citizens from the upcoming 2030 national census. Under the newly introduced guidelines, the federal government would fundamentally alter the decennial count by tallying only citizens and permanent legal residents.
According to a memorandum released by the Department of Commerce, individuals living in the country without legal status, as well as temporary lawful residents who do not possess a green card, would be entirely barred from the official headcount. The sweeping measure represents a significant departure from long-standing practices governing how the national population is calculated.
To justify the exclusion, the Commerce Department asserted in its memo that unauthorized immigrants and foreign nationals lacking durable legal residency do not qualify as "true inhabitants" of the country. Federal officials further claimed that such individuals do not possess a sufficient degree of "tie and allegiance" to the United States to warrant inclusion in the population baseline.
Beyond restricting which residents are counted, the Commerce Department’s plan also outlines alterations to the census questionnaire itself. The proposal seeks to eliminate specific questions concerning race and ethnicity that have been included in the national survey since 1790, alongside removing inquiries regarding sexual orientation.
The administrative blueprint has entered a mandatory 30-day public comment window. Once this feedback period concludes, Commerce Department officials are expected to assess public submissions before finalizing any binding administrative changes.
The policy shift aligns with previous statements made by Trump, who has consistently pushed to redefine census enumeration standards. In public remarks shared on his Truth Social platform last year, Trump asserted that individuals residing in the United States illegally would not be factored into official counts.
Demographic data highlights the massive scale of the proposed exclusions. Figures compiled by the Pew Research Center indicate that approximately 14 million undocumented immigrants were residing in the country as of 2023, the most recent year analyzed. Furthermore, Pew estimated that at least two million additional individuals resided in the US under legal, temporary arrangements without permanent green-card status, all of whom would also be omitted.
The demographic footprint of the affected population is heavily concentrated in a handful of regions across the country. More than half of all undocumented residents lived in just six states in 2023, with California recording the highest population at roughly 2.3 million people, followed closely by Texas with an estimated 2.1 million, alongside substantial communities in Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
The proposed modifications carry profound implications for the distribution of federal resources. Data generated by the Census Bureau directly determines how hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding are distributed each year, providing vital support for public infrastructure, local school systems, and healthcare facilities.
Advocates for immigrant rights and data equity warn that omitting millions of residents will fundamentally warp federal data sets, potentially depriving states and municipalities with large immigrant shares of needed public revenue. Meeta Anand, who directs the census and data equity programme at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, cautioned that the consequences of such an exclusion could be earth-shattering.
Anand stressed that census statistics serve as a structural foundation for American governance and society at large. She noted that relying on skewed numbers would lead to deeply flawed policy, investment, and business calculations because decision-makers would be operating from an incomplete and distorted demographic portrait of the nation.
In addition to financial repercussions, the policy could dramatically reshape political power within the federal government. Decennial census figures dictate the reapportionment of seats in the US House of Representatives among the 50 states, while also establishing the population baselines used to draw legislative voting districts nationwide.
Because congressional reapportionment directly reflects population totals, jurisdictions home to substantial numbers of undocumented or temporary residents could see their federal legislative delegations reduced. Any reduction in a state’s allocated House seats would simultaneously lower its electoral vote tally in the Electoral College, thereby shifting influence in future presidential contests.
The Commerce Department’s directive has already generated fierce legal and constitutional backlash. Opponents argue that excluding non-permanent residents directly violates the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution, which explicitly requires that legislative seats be apportioned according to the "whole number of persons" living in each state, while the Constitution itself vests ultimate authority over census administration in Congress.
State officials and advocacy organizations are already organizing opposition. New York Attorney General Letitia James announced that her office is preparing legal challenges against the measure, stating on social media that the Constitution unambiguously requires every person residing in the nation to be counted regardless of immigration standing. Meanwhile, the Center for American Progress denounced the initiative as a direct assault on democratic norms meant to dilute the political voice of diverse communities, urging the public to lobby lawmakers against the changes.
Comments (0)