Trump Points Finger at Democrats and Ukraine for Rising US Gas Prices as Iran War Fallout Persists

With US midterm elections drawing closer, President Donald Trump is seeking to redirect public frustration over rising fuel costs away from the war with Iran and toward Democratic-led states and Ukraine's military campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump argued that gasoline prices are no longer being driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that record volumes of oil are now flowing out of the region on an almost daily basis.

Instead, the president attributed the surge at the pump to refinery closures in the United States and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity. He singled out California, a Democratic stronghold, accusing state officials of shutting down refineries and thereby constricting supply. Trump also criticized Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, framing them as a direct contributor to higher fuel costs for American consumers.

The president's remarks come as petrol prices continue to climb nationwide. According to the American Automobile Association, which tracks daily fuel prices, the average cost of a gallon of gasoline now stands at $4.36. That figure is up from $4.14 a month earlier and represents a sharp increase from $2.98 on February 28, when the United States and Israel first launched strikes against Iran. The steady rise has become a politically sensitive issue as voters prepare to cast ballots in the midterm elections.

Despite Trump's assertions, data shows that daily exports through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted by 97 percent since the war began, severely constricting global oil supplies. The near-total collapse of traffic through the vital chokepoint has upended energy markets and pushed prices higher across the board. Trump's claim that record numbers of barrels are flowing out of the region on an almost daily basis appears to contradict this data.

Analysts say the situation is being compounded by overlapping global crises. Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera that the ongoing conflict with Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets. She noted that while the damage to Russia's refineries and the risk of additional US sanctions on those processing Russian oil are exacerbating the situation, the underlying problem remains the volatile flows from the Middle East, the greater difficulty getting oil products out, and the lower buffers in place.

Ukraine's military campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has emerged as a significant factor in rising diesel prices in particular. On Sunday, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence claimed it has disabled more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity. The strikes are part of an ongoing effort that began after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. According to an analysis by the International Energy Agency, Russian refinery throughput hit its lowest level in two decades in June, while diesel production has fallen 30 percent over the past 18 months.

In response to the mounting pressure on global energy markets, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves. The move followed pressure from the White House, which has been urging allies to take action to stabilize prices. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982, limiting Washington's own capacity to respond to further supply shocks.

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X that the United States has told some European Union members to release their strategic reserves or face a potential US diesel export ban. He noted that France and Germany were pushed to comply, and that oil prices, along with gasoline and diesel futures, fell strongly as a result. The coordinated release represents an attempt to calm markets ahead of the winter season.

Trump has also pointed to refinery closures in Democratic-led states as a driver of higher prices. In California, two refineries have shut down over the past year, reducing the state's refining capacity by 17 percent, according to an analysis by S&P Global. The closures have created supply gaps and contributed to volatile fuel prices in the region. However, economists caution that these closures are only one piece of a much larger global supply puzzle.

The political stakes surrounding the price increases are considerable. A recent AP-NORC poll found that 65 percent of Americans blame Trump's policies for higher prices, while 61 percent said the US economy is worse off than when he returned to office. These numbers suggest that the president's attempt to shift blame to Democrats and Ukraine may struggle to gain traction with voters who are feeling the pinch at the pump.

As the midterm elections approach, the trajectory of fuel prices could play a decisive role in shaping the balance of power in Washington. The combination of the Iran war, Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, and refinery closures in the United States has created a complex and volatile energy landscape. With global supplies constrained and emergency reserves dwindling, the pressure on prices is unlikely to ease in the near term.

Trump's latest comments reflect a broader strategy of deflecting responsibility for economic headwinds as voters head to the polls. By focusing on Democratic-led states and Ukraine's military actions, the president is attempting to frame the price surge as the product of domestic political choices and foreign conflicts rather than the US-Israel war with Iran. Whether that narrative resonates with an electorate facing sustained cost-of-living pressures remains to be seen.

The interplay between geopolitics and energy markets has rarely been more pronounced. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of the world's oil normally passes, remains a focal point of uncertainty. Iran has said the strait will remain closed until the United States meets its conditions, according to recent statements. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern oil exports have surpassed pre-war levels in some metrics, though the overall flow of products remains far from normal.

For American consumers, the immediate reality is a steady climb in fuel costs that shows little sign of reversing. The average price of $4.36 per gallon represents a significant burden for households and businesses alike, and it is a figure that will be on many voters' minds as they cast their ballots. With the G7's emergency reserve release offering only temporary relief and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level in decades, the options available to policymakers are narrowing.

As the war with Iran continues and Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries persist, the global energy system remains under strain. The coming weeks will determine whether the G7's coordinated action can stabilize markets or whether prices will continue their upward trajectory. For Trump, the challenge is to convince voters that his policies are not to blame, even as polling suggests a majority hold him responsible for the economic pain they are experiencing.