Hendra Wijaya
Drone attacks that disabled Saudi Arabia's vital East-West pipeline have pushed the world's second-largest crude exporter to rely on unconventional shipping maneuvers, including dark tanker transits and offshore vessel-to-vessel transfers, to keep oil flowing to international markets.
The aerial strikes knocked out crucial sections of the 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) pipeline last week, completely halting the flow of oil and abruptly removing an estimated 4 million to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) from the global supply chain.
Repair operations on the damaged infrastructure are anticipated to take a considerable amount of time. Citing two regional officials, The Associated Press reported that technical teams may require between three and five weeks to restore the conduit to full service.
The overland pipeline serves as a critical strategic asset connecting Saudi Arabia's major oil-producing fields in the east with the Yanbu maritime terminal on the Red Sea coast.
For months, the line had functioned as the kingdom's primary bypass around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical 39-kilometer (24-mile) waterway that has been largely shuttered to regular shipping traffic since the United States-Israel war on Iran erupted on February 28.
The pipeline closure compounds an already severe contraction in outbound Saudi energy volumes. Total crude loadings, which exceeded 7.5 million bpd during January and February, plummeted to roughly 2.3 million bpd in August.
Export figures dropped further during the first two weeks of September to approximately 2.1 million bpd, marking an overall export decline of more than 70 percent compared to pre-war baselines.
Energy analysts note that actual export numbers could be slightly higher than tracked figures suggest, as specialized shuttle tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz frequently switch off their vessel transponders, concealing movements from conventional maritime tracking databases.
Historically, Saudi Arabia's export network depended heavily on maritime routes passing east through Hormuz. Prior to the regional conflict, the kingdom exported between 7 million and 8 million bpd, moving the vast majority from eastern terminals such as Ras al-Ju’aymah and Ras Tanura, the latter of which handled an average of 5.4 million bpd in 2025.
Shipping through the Persian Gulf represents the most economical and direct passage to Asian markets, which purchase the vast majority of Saudi Arabia's crude exports.
With the East-West pipeline halted and the southern Red Sea corridor through the Bab al-Mandeb strait deemed hostile, Saudi authorities have been left with little choice but to redirect exports back into the volatile Gulf, absorbing elevated shipping expenses, steep insurance premiums, and maritime attack risks.
Rishi Rajanala, an oil research specialist at LSEG Data & Analytics, observed that Riyadh faces extremely narrow alternatives following the disruption. Rajanala explained that the primary strategy involves moving more crude from Gulf terminals through Hormuz, supplemented by ship-to-ship transfers outside the passage off the coast of Sohar in Oman.
Rajanala pointed out that while regional producers have already utilized offshore transfers, overall volumes remain constrained by vessel availability and shipping expenses. He noted that Saudi Arabia can also draw down crude stockpiled along the western coast and at Egypt's Sidi Kerir and Ain Sukhna terminals to feed European customers via the Sumed Pipeline, though such relief will only last as long as stored inventories permit.
The forced return to Gulf transit is expected to create extensive logistical headwinds across the shipping industry. Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at London-based Gibson Shipbrokers, stated that returning to Hormuz will drive up regional freight rates and create inefficiencies, noting that the outage at Yanbu does not appear to have a quick resolution.
To mitigate security threats during transit, tankers are increasingly navigating "dark" by deactivating their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking beacons while passing through Omani coastal waters. Matthews noted that while these vessels frequently coordinate operations alongside the United States Navy, they continue to face significant risks of maritime attack.
Industry experts warn that if pipeline repairs extend past several weeks, available storage reserves will be exhausted, forcing unmovable crude to be shut in and placing additional downward pressure on domestic oil production.
Despite these hazards, Saudi Arabia has already begun stepping up Gulf flows to compensate for western terminal losses. Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, reported that Hormuz exports climbed past two million bpd during the first half of September—an increase of approximately one million bpd over August levels—with state energy giant Aramco actively offering additional loadings to Asian refiners out of Sohar.
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