Ethiopian army pledges "wisdom and restraint" as Tigray war widens

ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia's federal military has promised to act with restraint as fighting escalates across the country's northern regions, reviving fears that the Horn of Africa nation could slide back into full-scale civil war.

Speaking in his first public comments on the recent military developments, Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula said the army was responding to what he described as provocations from the Tigray front with "wisdom and restraint". His remarks set out a deliberately measured line for a force that, according to the government's own account, is on the offensive in multiple provinces.

Jula used the occasion to place blame outside Ethiopia's borders, accusing Eritrea of financing and backing armed groups in order to weaken the country. He described the newly formed "Semedo" alliance as the latest extension of a long pattern of hostile coalitions that, he argued, have never been able to confront the Ethiopian state without outside assistance.

Eritrea has rejected those allegations. The two countries have a long history of mutual suspicion, and Asmara is wary that landlocked Ethiopia — a state without direct maritime access — might be harbouring designs on Eritrean territory in order to reach the Red Sea.

The current fighting began in Tigray and has since spread into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. Seven armed groups announced a formal alliance, calling themselves the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, and committed to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power.

In Afar, the most recent engagements have centred on the town of Abala, where government troops have been attempting to stop rebel forces from capturing the area. The battles there have added a new front to a conflict that was, until recently, concentrated in the northernmost region.

In North Wollo, an Amhara zone that borders Tigray, the army said on Thursday that it had killed 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounded 260 others during a counter-offensive, describing the engagement as a major blow to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Such figures are difficult to verify independently, and neither side has provided access for independent counting.

The TPLF's Tigray Army has offered a markedly different account of the same fighting, saying the federal government has mounted a "full-scale offensive" using infantry, mechanised units and drones. Abdisalam Balema, a member of the TPLF's central committee, told Al Jazeera the situation had become a "full war".

Combat has also continued around the towns of Sama, Soqota and Raya Alamata, with government forces reportedly closing in on Alamata. The geographic spread of the clashes is significant, because it suggests the confrontation is no longer contained within a single regional theatre.

Even as fighting intensifies, the army command has said it prefers a strategy of "strategic calm" over a large-scale military confrontation. Officials argue that popular support for the Tigray front is waning and that its leadership is divided — claims that amount to psychological warfare as much as battlefield messaging.

The humanitarian picture has darkened alongside the military escalation. Internet access was reportedly cut across northern Ethiopia on Friday, a day after the United Nations said it was alarmed by reports that drones were being used against civilians in the region. Communication blackouts make it harder for aid agencies to assess needs and for residents to reach safety.

All of this is putting severe strain on the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray. The fighting has flared just weeks after Washington lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea over atrocities committed during that earlier conflict, declaring that the "national emergency … has expired".

Analysts describe the current escalation as the gravest challenge yet to the deal, and one that raises the prospect of a wider regional war drawing in armed groups from across Ethiopia, several of which have their own histories of grievance against Addis Ababa.

At the United Nations General Assembly, Ethiopia's president sought to counter that narrative, presenting the country as a force for regional stability. He accused unnamed external actors of meddling in Ethiopia's domestic affairs while pointing to Addis Ababa's role in supporting peace efforts in neighbouring Sudan.

Not everyone accepts the government's framing. Alemayehu Weldemariam, a professor of law at Indiana University, told Al Jazeera the federal government bears much of the responsibility for the agreement's unraveling. "This war has been in the making for a while now. Much of the provisions in the cessation of hostilities [in the 2022 agreement] were primarily sabotaged by the federal government itself," he said, citing fuel, service and cash restrictions imposed on Tigray as well as the government's failure to establish the interim administration the deal had promised.

"What was supposed to be an interim arrangement turned out to be permanent," he added, noting that Tigray has been excluded from national elections since.

As the army balances threats on several fronts, the contrast between the military's talk of restraint and the scale of reported casualties illustrates the difficulty ahead: any move toward negotiation requires the same factions now exchanging drone strikes and counter-offensives to accept a pause they have already spent months rejecting.