Ethiopian Forces Seize Mekelle as Tigray Conflict Reignites Fears of Wider War

Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters have taken control of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) withdrew from the city. The development, confirmed by the TPLF on Saturday, marks a significant escalation in the renewed conflict and has revived painful memories of the devastating 2020–22 Tigray war, which killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions.

According to Reuters, a pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker and a Mekelle resident all confirmed on Sunday that government-aligned forces were in control of the city. The TPLF said in a statement that it had "temporarily moved out of Mekelle" and that its regional administration would operate from another location, framing the withdrawal as a tactical decision intended to prevent further destruction rather than an end to hostilities.

Goitom, a 37-year-old resident of Mekelle, described a period of uncertainty after TPLF forces left, with what he characterized as a security vacuum that allowed theft in some areas, including government offices. "On Friday night, we were hearing gunfire but did not know what was happening," he told Al Jazeera. By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key locations, including the airport, he said. "It feels like we are back to square one," Goitom added. "We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next."

The capture of Mekelle comes less than four years after the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement in November 2022, a deal facilitated by the African Union that ended two years of large-scale fighting. However, key issues remained unresolved, including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces. In July, the TPLF declared that the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected that characterization, insisting it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement.

The political dispute was accompanied by growing military tensions, including reports of sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray. The two sides also traded accusations over troop movements and preparations for renewed fighting. The capture of Mekelle now places the city once again at the center of the conflict, echoing the darkest days of the previous war.

The human toll of the renewed fighting is already being felt far beyond Tigray's borders. In Addis Ababa, residents have been alarmed by explosions heard in several parts of the capital, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia's military. Reuters reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed the group had carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities, though the claim could not be independently verified. Diplomatic sources confirmed that explosions were heard in multiple areas of the capital.

Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper in Addis Ababa, said the fighting had felt distant until the blasts shook the city. "I woke up and heard that my city had been hit," he said. "You hear about fighting in Tigray, and it feels far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start asking yourself what will happen next." For Abel, the economic consequences are as concerning as the violence itself. "If the war becomes bigger, ordinary people will suffer," he warned.

Bisrat, a college student in Addis Ababa, said the overnight explosions had reinforced his fear that Ethiopia could be entering a much wider conflict. "If Ethiopia goes into a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer," he said. "I fear seeing another Sudan." Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating a major humanitarian crisis that continues to destabilize the region.

The current fighting involves a broader set of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a wider opposition alliance that includes armed groups from several parts of the country, signaling that the conflict could spread to multiple fronts. Fighting has also spread into Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated in recent days.

Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia's internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has rejected the accusations. On Thursday, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities that posed a threat to Ethiopia's national security. Eritrea subsequently announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia. The diplomatic rupture has added to concerns that the renewed fighting could acquire a wider regional dimension, drawing in neighboring states and destabilizing the Horn of Africa.

Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwestern Tigray, said the latest fighting had been particularly difficult to watch. "I feel very heartbroken knowing that Tigray has gone back to full-scale war," he said in a phone interview with Al Jazeera. "We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again."

The 2020–22 war killed hundreds of thousands of people, according to estimates, displaced millions and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. The Pretoria agreement ended the large-scale fighting, but the unresolved issues at its core—disputed territories, displacement and disarmament—have now resurfaced with renewed intensity.

The TPLF has indicated that its forces will continue the conflict from other positions, suggesting that the battle for Mekelle may be only the latest chapter in a longer struggle. For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents a significant strategic victory, but it remains unclear whether the gain can be sustained amid a widening conflict that now involves multiple armed groups, a diplomatic rupture with Eritrea and growing fears of regional spillover.

As residents in Mekelle, Addis Ababa and beyond brace for what comes next, the overriding sentiment is one of apprehension. The memories of the last war—its casualties, its displacement, its destruction—remain fresh, and the prospect of reliving that trauma is a burden many Ethiopians had hoped never to face again.